Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 days of his inauguration?
68
100Ṁ7714
resolved Feb 15
Resolved
NO

They’re dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I’ll have that done — I’ll have that done in 24 hours. - Donald J. Trump

That's hyperbolic, but how about 24 days?

Resolution Criteria:

  1. End of War: Defined as a mutually agreed ceasefire or peace agreement signed by Ukraine and Russia.

  2. Timeline: The agreement must be signed within 24 days of Trump’s inauguration.

  3. Verification: Confirmation from recognized news sources or statements from official government sources in Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S.

Sister market:

  • Update 2024-27-12 (PST): - The ceasefire must have some permanence and cannot be a temporary or short-term agreement. (AI summary of creator comment)

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reposted

Looks like ol' Donald John is gonna need some more time, so I made a 24-week version of this market.

https://manifold.markets/GazDownright/will-trump-end-the-russiaukraine-wa-RAy2L5I05I

reposted

Open for trading.

filled a Ṁ100 NO at 1.0% order

@GazDownright um seems like the war kept going?

@Shai Note: This is the market for within 24 days. I already resolved the 24h one.

@GazDownright ohh my bad

Would a two day ceasefire count?

@HankyUSA I'd consider that a break. The ceasefire must have some permanence to it.

Arbitrage opportunity :

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