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12% chance. A number of people, including notably Ron DeSantis, have suggested deploying US military forces in Mexico, in particular to combat Mexican drug cartels. This includes all military operations, whether operating under explicit flags or covert, with or without the permission of the Mexican government. This will resolve on the basis of official statements by the US or Mexican govenments and credible news reports. Reports in question must be publicly available by 2026-01-31, and cover operations conducted before EOY 2025.