This market will resolve based off of publicly availible data when the 2028 election concludes. The closing date will be right before the day of the election. I will wait about a week for statistics to come out, and longer if necessary. When I have come to a decision, I will make a notice in the comments so that traders can dispute my decision, and so that I can correct any errors before I resolve the market and make it permanent. If this market is sweepified, it will resolve according to the sweepcash market (i.e. it will resolve according to Manifold mods' judgement).

Specifications: Each state will be considered individually and will not be weighted. For example, a red state that shifts 40% red (redshift) will be weighted the exact same as a red state that shifted 1% blue (blueshift). Which states are originally red or blue will be decided by the 2024 election results (if the state voted blue it's blue).

Additionally, for a more objective judgement, let's define the somewhat vague terms used in the answer choices. Let's say that between 1/3 and 2/3 would be "about half", while >2/3 would be "almost all", and "most" refers to >1/2.

This does mean that "increasing polarization" and "partial shift" options can happen at the same time. For example if 80% of blue states shift blue and 60% of red states shift red, "partial blueshift" and "increasing polarization" will both resolve to YES (40% of red states shift blue, which is 'about a half'). Other combinations are also possible, which is why this question is a Set question and not a Multiple Choice (Notably, options 3, 4, 7, and 8 are mutually exclusive - if it does not add up to 100%, maybe there's some profit you could make).

If there are any questions, please write a comment - I am glad to elaborate. As usual, I will not bet on any of my markets that may have subjective resolutions - including this one.