Will Manifold Markets be mentioned in The New York Times or Wall Street Journal before Jan 1, 2026

100Ṁ1096

resolved Aug 5

Resolved

YES

ALL

This market resolves YES if Manifold Markets is explicitly mentioned in a published article by either:

The New York Times (nytimes.com)
The Wall Street Journal (wsj.com)
before Jan 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Mentions must be in a formal article (not comments or reader posts), accessible via the publication's website. Screenshots or archived links will be used to verify.

Mention must include the name “Manifold Markets” or “Manifold” in a context that clearly refers to this prediction platform.

8/5/25- cannot be a article from the past, please link any article articles, if posting into the comments

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ90
2		Ṁ26
3		Ṁ17
4		Ṁ11
5		Ṁ5

People are also trading

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

20% chance

Will the New York Times create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

13% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be popular at the end of 2026?

73% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be around by 2030?

94% chance

Will Manifold Markets be insolvent before 2030?

17% chance

Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)

63% chance

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

94% chance

Will the Wall Street Journal create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

14% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be active in 2030?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ750 YES

Resolves YES

@MingCat can you link the article? I’m gonna be updating it now to also mention that this cannot be a article from the past.

@GageMason August 4th! Not the past https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/04/technology/rationalists-ai-lighthaven.html

@MingCat thank you lol. this question was very short-lived 😭

@MingCat if it's not too inconvenient, could you summarise the article content? I'm stuck behind the pay wall

@TheAllMemeingEye there is no pay wall, its just requires you to sign up with your email. The screenshot he posted is accurate.

@MingCat did you lose 30 points overall on this one? lol

if so i think you shoulda went all in on yes after you found that article and posted it in the comments

@GageMason yep lol

and isn't that what I did? I bought the market up to 99%, it just wasn't enough

@TheAllMemeingEye basically just an overall rundown of the rationalist community, doesn't go into any real detail about anything, just drops scattered ideas like Roko's basilisk and pokes into its connections with elon musk, peter thiel, sbf, etc

weirdly anti-climactic

Characterizes EA as being about maximizing good "not just for humans alive, but for every human who will ever live" and its AI safety endeavors

Equates Lighthaven to a (metaphorical?) temple and the sequences to a religious text