It is likely that the Republicans will take the Senate in the 2024 elections. They might also take control of the House and Presidency, having a legislative trifecta. However, under current Senate rules they would be unable to pass most laws, since Democrats could filibuster. However, Senate rules do allow the “nuclear option”, in which a simple majority vote can override Senate rules and abolish the filibuster.
If Republicans take control of the Senate, will they abolish the filibuster before the end of the 2028?
Resolves N/A if Republicans do not have control of the Senate (either a 51/49 split or a 50/50 split with a Republican VP). If it is partially abolished, I will either use my best judgement or resolve to a poll.
Chance of taking the Senate:
Same market for taking the trifecta:
Update 2025-17-01 (PST): - If Democrats take the Senate before the end of 2028, this resolves to "NO". (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000I've adjusted the title to just "Will Republicans abolish the filibuster before the end of 2028?" instead of "If Republicans take the US Senate in 2024, will they abolish the filibuster?", since it's no longer condition.
As a clarification, if Democrats take the Senate before the end of 2028, this resolves NO.