Will a new type of AI model replace transformers as the state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology by 2024?
16
1kṀ1810resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the leading AI model for "general" intelligence is NOT transfomer-based model on December 31st 2024.
Resolves NO if the leading AI model for "general" intelligence is transformer-based, such as the GPT architecture on December 31st 2024.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ162 | |
| 2 | Ṁ48 | |
| 3 | Ṁ29 | |
| 4 | Ṁ29 | |
| 5 | Ṁ28 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
Will the state-of-the-art AI model use latent space to reason by 2026?
15% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
Will models be able to do the work of an AI researcher/engineer before 2027?
26% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2025?
35% chance
Will open-source AI win (through 2025)?
37% chance
Which kind of computers will be the standard for AI models in 2034?
Will a new lab create a top-performing AI frontier model before 2028?
93% chance
Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027
55% chance