On January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark
44
Ṁ1kṀ7.1kDec 31
92%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Tracking external bet: https://www.isattentionallyouneed.com/
This will resolve according to that site, whatever the conditions and caveats they have agreed on.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?
Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?
63% chance
Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?
15% chance
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
46% chance
In Jan 2027, it will be standard practise for non-AI-building tech companies to finetune and train their own models
7% chance
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
27% chance
Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027
55% chance
Will Transformer-Based LLMs Make Up ≥75% of Parameters in the Top General AI by 2030?
50% chance
Which kind of computers will be the standard for AI models in 2034?
Sort by:
https://blog.rwkv.com/p/eagle-7b-soaring-past-transformers
It even links the wager page in its bragging points:
All while being an “Attention-Free Transformer”
People are also trading
Related questions
Top AI Model 2026 (Epoch Capabilities Index, ECI)
Which AI company will release the most impactful new model before September 30, 2026?
Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?
63% chance
Will transformer architectures lose their dominant position in deep learning before 2028?
15% chance
Will superposition in transformers be mostly solved by 2026?
46% chance
In Jan 2027, it will be standard practise for non-AI-building tech companies to finetune and train their own models
7% chance
Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?
27% chance
Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027
55% chance
Will Transformer-Based LLMs Make Up ≥75% of Parameters in the Top General AI by 2030?
50% chance
Which kind of computers will be the standard for AI models in 2034?
