This market forecasts whether Salesforce, Inc. announces a definitive agreement to be acquired by one of the named companies within the window after the first of OpenAI or Anthropic becomes publicly traded.

Public-listing trigger: D is the date on which common equity in either OpenAI's or Anthropic's principal operating-company parent first begins regular public trading on NYSE or Nasdaq, through an IPO, direct listing, or completed SPAC combination. Use the first of the two listings. A renaming or corporate reorganization that preserves substantially the same core business counts. Filing for an IPO, announcing an IPO, private secondary trading, debt listings, or listing an unrelated investment vehicle does not count.

The trigger must occur no later than 11:59:59pm America/New_York on December 31, 2028. Otherwise resolve to outcome 3. A listing after that cutoff cannot change the resolution.

Acquisition window: from the beginning of regular trading on D through 11:59:59pm America/New_York on D+365 calendar days, inclusive. An acquisition announcement before regular trading begins on D does not count.

Qualifying buyers: OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, SpaceX, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Apple, NVIDIA, Oracle, and IBM. Majority-controlled acquisition subsidiaries and legal successor entities count. For a consortium, a named buyer must individually control more than 50% of the acquiring entity's voting power; merely participating does not count.

Qualifying announcement: Salesforce or the buyer publicly confirms that a definitive agreement has been signed under which that buyer will acquire more than 50% of Salesforce's voting control, or Salesforce will merge into a surviving parent controlled by that buyer. A signed deal subject to shareholder or regulatory approval counts. The transaction need not close within the window. A later cancellation, antitrust block, or failure to close does not reverse this result.

Rumors, press reports of talks, nonbinding offers, letters of intent, minority stakes, commercial partnerships, acquisitions only of assets or divisions such as Slack, and Salesforce acquiring the named buyer do not count. Repeating or amending an agreement first announced before the window does not count unless the original agreement was terminated and a new qualifying agreement is signed and announced within the window. An unsolicited offer or tender offer without a signed definitive agreement does not count.

Resolution: resolve outcome 1 when a qualifying announcement occurs in the window. Resolve outcome 2 after the window ends if the trigger occurred by the cutoff but no qualifying announcement occurred. Resolve outcome 3 after the cutoff if the trigger did not occur. These outcomes are exhaustive and mutually exclusive.

Sources: use official exchange confirmation and the issuer's regulatory filings to establish actual first regular trading, not an estimated IPO calendar. Use Salesforce SEC filings or an official Salesforce announcement for the deal; if neither is available, use the acquirer's official filing or announcement. A named buyer's public statement must identify a signed definitive agreement, not an intention to pursue a deal. Reuters or Bloomberg may corroborate but do not replace the required official evidence.

Trading close: the market closes Dec 31, 2028, 11:59:59pm America/New_York (the listing cutoff). If the first listing occurs before then, replace the close with the actual D+365 deadline and post a comment explaining the date. Close and resolve earlier when outcome 1 is established or when the IPO cutoff is missed. After a condition is met, do not leave the market open merely to accumulate trades.

Interpretation: the raw outcome-1 probability includes the chance that neither company lists by the cutoff. For an estimate conditional on a timely listing, divide P(outcome 1) by P(outcome 1)+P(outcome 2), provided the denominator is nonzero. This is a market-implied estimate, not a guarantee or proof of causation.