Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2027 and 2028 from a peak reached during or before the year 2026, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2026.
Resolves NO if world total oil production is reported to be above 2026 levels in any of the two years following.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html
1,000NO ~10%. Resolution requires production declines in BOTH 2027 AND 2028 from a pre-2027 peak, plus expert consensus. Both IEA and EIA project growing production through 2027. OPEC+ resumed unwinding cuts in April 2026 (+206k b/d). The Hormuz crisis is a temporary geopolitical disruption — not structural geological decline. OPEC has massive spare capacity. Non-OPEC supply (US, Brazil, Guyana) continues growing. No credible energy economist is arguing peak supply has arrived. The IEA sees peak demand near 2030, not peak supply. Market is conflating war disruption with structural peak.