If at Aug 31st 2026 (near the deadline to register to be candidate to president) Bolsonaro is without his political rights, but wasn't arrested, this market resolves to YES.

Some caveats.

• I don't plan to count short-term arrestings. Say Bolsonaro spends 3 nights in prision like president Temer, I ain't counting. The mark is 31 days in prision, regardless of the legal status.

• If Bolsonaro is an out of law by Aug 31st 2026, with an open order to imprision him in Brazil, this market resolves to NO.

• If Bolsonaro spends more than 31 days in prision, this market resolves NO in advance.

• This market only resolves to YES at the closing date if the conditions are met.

Antecedents. There are some charges against Bolsonaro in the Superior Electoral Court, that would not put him in prision, but where he could lose his political rights. Given that many people think these judgement will have political considerations, some can say that it would be a convinient option for the judiciary system to expel him from the democratic game without putting in prision (like they did with Lula, only to fireback).

I may bet on this market.