Will AI Cause a 10x Surge in Lawsuits or Legal Industry GDP by 2033?
Basic
9
Ṁ390
2033
22%
chance

In a tweet by Sam Lessin (@lessin) on April 6, 2023 (https://twitter.com/lessin/status/1643992307312771073?t=4ukK_LhVCeJr0hfpOOqxzw&s=03), he argues that AI will not eviscerate the legal profession as commonly believed. Instead, he posits that AI will contribute to the generation and processing of increasingly long and complex contracts, resulting in a tenfold increase in lawsuits and a booming legal business as a significant part of GDP. This prediction market aims to assess the likelihood of AI's impact on the legal industry leading to either a substantial increase in lawsuits or a significant growth in the legal business's GDP contribution by 2033.

Resolution Criteria: The market will resolve as "Yes" if, by the end of 2033, at least one of the following conditions is met:

1-The total number of lawsuits filed annually in the United States (or an equivalent major jurisdiction) increases by a factor of 10 compared to the number of lawsuits filed in 2022, as reported by an official government source or a credible research organization.

2-The legal industry's contribution to GDP increases 10 times compared to its contribution in 2022, as evidenced by data from sources such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), or other reputable organizations.

If neither of these conditions is met by the end of 2033, the market will resolve as "No." Participants will consider various factors such as technological advancements, legal regulations, and the evolving role of AI in contract creation and processing to determine the potential outcomes.

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