Will two countries led by women engage in war before 2100? | Manifold

Will two countries led by women engage in war before 2100?

22

Ṁ132Ṁ617

2100

60%

chance

1H

6H

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1W

1M

ALL

Historically, instances like this have been incredibly rare, with debates on occurrences such as the Indian Rebellion of 1857, see: /FranklinBaldo/has-there-ever-been-a-war-between-t

As the world progresses and more women ascend to leadership positions, this market explores the possibility of such a historical event occurring before the end of the 21st century.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point before December 31, 2099, a war is declared between two sovereign nations both led by female. The war must be recognized as a state of armed conflict between the countries. If no such event occurs by this date, the market will resolve to "No."

Market context

FranklinBaldo bets NO

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Will an "inherited" war count - that is, if one or both female leaders get their positions during the preexisting war? (This can happen, for instance, if previous head dies.)

Do you actually mean "heads of state", as in, monarchs or Presidents, or did you also want to include heads of government (Prime Ministers)?

@BrunoParga yeah, this includes head of government.

@BrunoParga updated the question.

@FranklinBaldo sounds good, thank you!

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