MANIFOLD
[Brazil Election] Will Brazil have a peaceful transition of power?
23
Ṁ450Ṁ3.1k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES

It's a clone of this market:

But:

I resolve NO if at least one violent death is reported in protests or demonstrations that question the legitimacy of the new government.

I will also decide NO if there is a "peaceful" coup and Lula does not become president.

Market context
World
Brazil
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ144
2Ṁ90
3Ṁ75
4Ṁ44
5Ṁ33

People are also trading

Sort by:
predictedYES

This market should resolve to YES. Lula is already in power.

predictedNO

More violence today

https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ultimas-noticias/2022/12/12/bolsonaristas-queimam-carros-e-tentam-invadir-pf-apos-prisao-de-indigena.htm

There were reported killings in political violence prior to the election: https://apnews.com/article/jair-bolsonaro-violence-caribbean-elections-presidential-fd03fa062043edec3f8cd1f7e9cae3a2 Seems fairly likely to occur now too

predictedNO

Tonight we had another violent incident, but apparently the victim didn't die.

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/caminhao-atropela-manifestantes-que-bloqueavam-rodovia-em-rondonia-e-foge-sem-prestar-socorro/

[Brazil Election] Will Brazil have a peaceful transition of power?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy