Conditional on Brazil's Lula defeating Bolsonaro, will the transition of power be peaceful and go through? I will be using my own judgement plus mainstream news sources to make this determination.
Recent News: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-reaches-44-voter-support-ahead-brazil-election-bolsonaro-has-32-poll-2022-08-16/?utm_source=reddit.com
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@AndrewHartman It was a peaceful transition, even if there was a coup afterwards. Also, Sneaky said a January 6th coup attempt would be considered peaceful
@MP He did, yeah. I lost money on this twice, in fact, because the other market I was arbing resolved just late enough to include the coup.
@SneakySly would a sucessful terrorist attack, but one that don't creates a credible threat to the democratic process, be considered a YES?
If president Lula is murdered Kennedy-like but vice-president elected Alckmin takes office peacefully, would it be considered peaceful?
@MP "If president Lula is murdered Kennedy-like but vice-president elected Alckmin takes office peacefully, would it be considered peaceful?"
Almost any version of Lula being killed would definitely result in a NO resolution.
Almost all terrorist attacks unless it was some completely unrelated thing would also result in a NO.
I keep my long position, but recent news flow of the issues president elected is facing choosing the Minister of Defense makes me a bit less bullish, so I am cutting a bit. There's also some news flow of lower ranking officials sending Whatsapp messages threatening to prevent Lula from taking office that makes me blink a bit.
@MP It is possible to argue that the transition of power can no longer be considered peaceful. Many people were arrested due to roadblocks.
@FranklinBaldo We discussed with @SneakySly and he considers January 6th peaceful (even though some policemen died). Hard to see how some "Not my president"-like protests can be framed as a YES here.
I early described the JK transition as a non-peaceful one.
@FranklinBaldo Your market is almost guaranteed to settle to NO. We already had dozens of political deaths.
@MP Maybe I am not following this close enough, but I didn't find news about deaths after the elections.
Tonight we had another violent incident, but apparently the victim didn't die.
@MP From what I've been told about it from Brazilians who lived through it, "peaceful" is not the term they'd use to describe it. But it turns out to be hard to find actual coverage of the process (in a short search).
@AndrewHartman I literally lived through it and I don't remember a single violent protest
Hmmm. I have some brazilian friends sending me videos of the opposing groups of partisans getting into some fairly violent altercations already. I'm not sure what you consider to be "normal" in terms of street violence in Brazil, but my friends don't seem to consider this normal at all. So I kinda think this is more of a "will the mainstream media report on the situation" question than a factual one.
@AndrewHartman Some small scattered violence that doesn’t get reported on wouldn’t really count for the purpose of this market.
@SneakySly If there is politically motivated violence well documented across the country I think it should hinge on whether or not Bolsonaro concedes by some date of significance. I don't know enough about Brazilian politics to say what that date should be, but I think there is something with a sash that is important and symbolic. Bolsonaro himself has referenced that day, whenever it is. @MP I think knows this stuff inside and out.
@BTE We're currently having protests, but it's just popular people protesting. We can discuss if they have the right to block highways, but bringing some discomfort to the rest of the public is part of the democratic process.
Our armed forces aren't showing any signs of doing anything not legal.
I agree that the protests increase the odds of a non-peaceful transfer of power, but it's very marginally.
The White House already warned that there isn't space for a coup and tbh, I think that even Washington and Beijing could agree here that there's no space for a non-peaceful transfer of power.