[Brazil Election] Will Brazil have a peaceful transition of power?
resolved Jan 1

Conditional on Brazil's Lula defeating Bolsonaro, will the transition of power be peaceful and go through? I will be using my own judgement plus mainstream news sources to make this determination.

Recent News: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/lula-reaches-44-voter-support-ahead-brazil-election-bolsonaro-has-32-poll-2022-08-16/?utm_source=reddit.com

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predicted YES

@AndrewHartman It was a peaceful transition, even if there was a coup afterwards. Also, Sneaky said a January 6th coup attempt would be considered peaceful

predicted NO

@MP He did, yeah. I lost money on this twice, in fact, because the other market I was arbing resolved just late enough to include the coup.


predicted YES

Lula is already in power. This market should resolve as YES

predicted YES

@SneakySly would a sucessful terrorist attack, but one that don't creates a credible threat to the democratic process, be considered a YES?

If president Lula is murdered Kennedy-like but vice-president elected Alckmin takes office peacefully, would it be considered peaceful?

@MP "If president Lula is murdered Kennedy-like but vice-president elected Alckmin takes office peacefully, would it be considered peaceful?"

Almost any version of Lula being killed would definitely result in a NO resolution.

Almost all terrorist attacks unless it was some completely unrelated thing would also result in a NO.

sold Ṁ171 of YES
predicted YES

Folha is reporting that Bolsonaro's chief of staff offered the Granja do Torto official residence to Lula. Totally the kind of thing people do before they attempt a coup.

predicted YES

@MP Lula likes granja more anyway.

sold Ṁ185 of YES

I keep my long position, but recent news flow of the issues president elected is facing choosing the Minister of Defense makes me a bit less bullish, so I am cutting a bit. There's also some news flow of lower ranking officials sending Whatsapp messages threatening to prevent Lula from taking office that makes me blink a bit.

predicted NO

@MP It is possible to argue that the transition of power can no longer be considered peaceful. Many people were arrested due to roadblocks.

predicted YES

@FranklinBaldo We discussed with @SneakySly and he considers January 6th peaceful (even though some policemen died). Hard to see how some "Not my president"-like protests can be framed as a YES here.

I early described the JK transition as a non-peaceful one.

predicted NO

@MP So I created this alternative market:

predicted YES

@FranklinBaldo Your market is almost guaranteed to settle to NO. We already had dozens of political deaths.

@MP Maybe I am not following this close enough, but I didn't find news about deaths after the elections.

predicted NO

Apparently one of Lula's expressed intentions is to confiscate guns from most registered users. Given that will inevitably lead to violence, how would you score that in relation to this market?

predicted YES

@AndrewHartman He literally did it during his firm term and people acted peacefully.

predicted NO

@MP From what I've been told about it from Brazilians who lived through it, "peaceful" is not the term they'd use to describe it. But it turns out to be hard to find actual coverage of the process (in a short search).

predicted YES

@AndrewHartman I literally lived through it and I don't remember a single violent protest


predicted YES

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bought Ṁ150 of YES

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

Hmmm. I have some brazilian friends sending me videos of the opposing groups of partisans getting into some fairly violent altercations already. I'm not sure what you consider to be "normal" in terms of street violence in Brazil, but my friends don't seem to consider this normal at all. So I kinda think this is more of a "will the mainstream media report on the situation" question than a factual one.

@AndrewHartman Some small scattered violence that doesn’t get reported on wouldn’t really count for the purpose of this market.

predicted NO

@SneakySly If there is politically motivated violence well documented across the country I think it should hinge on whether or not Bolsonaro concedes by some date of significance. I don't know enough about Brazilian politics to say what that date should be, but I think there is something with a sash that is important and symbolic. Bolsonaro himself has referenced that day, whenever it is. @MP I think knows this stuff inside and out.

@BTE Yeah agreed.

predicted YES

@BTE We're currently having protests, but it's just popular people protesting. We can discuss if they have the right to block highways, but bringing some discomfort to the rest of the public is part of the democratic process.

Our armed forces aren't showing any signs of doing anything not legal.

I agree that the protests increase the odds of a non-peaceful transfer of power, but it's very marginally.

The White House already warned that there isn't space for a coup and tbh, I think that even Washington and Beijing could agree here that there's no space for a non-peaceful transfer of power.