LOTTERY! This question will resolve YES with a 1/1000 probability.
Resolved
NO
Jun 17
M$3,415 bet
I will run `random.randint(0,1000)` sometime during 17.06. If the number I get is 333, I will resolve as yes. Otherwise I will resolve as NO.
Angela
I can confirm 481 on discord
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FranekZak
Franek Żak is betting NO at 2%
Thanks @Angela for bearing witness, the resulting number was 481, so resolves NO
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FranekZak
Franek Żak is betting NO at 2%
It is now the 17th here, I will stream on discord in about 5 minutes with the random number
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IsaacKing
It would be better to use a source of randomness that everyone can verify. Otherwise people are going to be very hesitant to bet this down to the 0.1% it should be at.
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Angela
livestream on the discord?
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IsaacKing
@Angela That's fakeable, but decent, as the effort required to fake that is much higher than I'd expect anyone to go through for a few hundred M$. Even better would be a public source of randomness. I've seen other Manifolders using crypto blocks, though I'm sure there's some non-crypto website that does the same thing.
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jack
@IsaacKing Yeah, there are 3rd party websites that have periodic random numbers - so you can pick one in advance, link it in a comment, and then everyone can observe the result. I'm sure there's many, just googling around a bit I found https://avkg.com/en/daily-random/ which is one that generates various random numbers daily (so you can say, we'll use the first random number from 1-1000 on this date) This is way easier than the blockchain-based method I'm using for https://manifold.markets/jack/resolves-yes-1-chance-na-99-chance and works just as well for something like this. I mostly used blockchain for fun :)
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FranekZak
Franek Żak is betting NO at 3%
@IsaacKing I'll provide a livestream on the discord. I feel like switching to a public source of randomness changes the question criteria.
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MattP
Matt P bought M$1 of YES
@IsaacKing other solution would just be for creators of these kinds of gambling markets not to bet on them. That's what I typically do with my dice-rolling markets, because I'd rather roll physical dice. xD
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