Conditional on a stable peace between Ukraine and Russia, Crimea will be controlled by neither
➕
Plus
18
Ṁ1027
Jan 1
20%
chance

Peace can also mean lasting ceasefire with no deaths for 6 months.

Doesn't have to involve the exact borders of Crimea, can include other territories, but at least 80% of the population and territory of Crimea.

Doesn't have to be a state as long as it's not under direct control of either Ukraine or Russia.

Can allow for a limited amount of troops for either side, for the purpose of inspection or passage, especially if the base of Sevastopol remains leased to Russia; but only if kept in check by a much larger multinational peacekeeper force.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules