Resolves according to Trump's aggregate prediction market price in the Presidential Winner forecast as of 12:01 am on November 5, 2024 at thesupermodel.com/p/presidential-winner
1,000
3.00
@Ziddletwix (oops didn't add ping @FlipPidot ). thanks again for the awesome site! will be tracking it tmrw
@FlipPidot does this resolve based on the Trump probability shown on the graph, or in the table? (54.8% vs 55.7% respectively in the example pic below). Not sure if there's a difference, or if one is just updated more slowly, but figured I'd check what resolves this market.
@Ziddletwix oops I totally missed that there are now 3 #s on the page that aren't exactly the same. The big number on top, the graph, and the table on the bottom. Probably just all on slightly different delays?
@Ziddletwix Good question. The big numbers at the top and the numbers in the table at the bottom will almost always be exactly the same (if they differ, refresh and they should sync up). The chart is slower to update. So this will resolve according to the table/toplines. But if they should happen to differ, the official settlement source will be the toplines (big numbers at the top of the page).
Interactive Brokers seems to be getting more popular with the Robinhood partnership. Are you able to track volume by platform? @FlipPidot