Question resolves YES if at least one of the US states suffers a power grid outage involving more than 1000 households, and at least one official source cites the solar eclipse to be a contributing factor.
If no outage meets the criteria, or an outage meets the criteria but no source confirms the role of the solar eclipse, the market resolves as NO.
Closing at 23.59 on October 16, 2023 EST (allowing 2 additional day for publications by official sources)
Context: getting to know Manifold and I want to set up an easy near-term question that I can get my head around.
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@EvanDaniel I believe so too. Will wait a few more hours to see if anyone comes up with any objection
@wilkess I actually don't really have a scenario either. What Martin says, or something with the high ramping rate for solar PV.
But IMO that shouldn't be any different from the effect clouds have, and it is extremely predictable.
So my personal bet is on NO as well*. But curious what Manifold thinks of it.
*my personal opinion and bets do not change how I will resolve my own questions.