On 28/08/2023, the loans came late, throwing the whole of Manifold into disarray. People sold out of markets. Limit orders were cancelled. The AI Doom market made it to 14%! People said nice things about each other in the hopes of monetary reward. It was chaos. The loans finally came around 13 hours later than usual. And there was much rejoicing.

This market resolves YES if there is another day before 22nd October in which at least 20 people report not receiving their loans for 4 hours or more after the usual time (which I believe is midnight Pacific Time). Otherwise resolves NO.

Midnight on 22nd itself doesn't count.

If Manifold reduces loans, that doesn't trigger resolution. If they eliminate loans, resolves YES. If they reduce them so much that it's taking the piss, like 0.001% or something, I'll resolve YES.