On 28/08/2023, the loans came late, throwing the whole of Manifold into disarray. People sold out of markets. Limit orders were cancelled. The AI Doom market made it to 14%! People said nice things about each other in the hopes of monetary reward. It was chaos. The loans finally came around 13 hours later than usual. And there was much rejoicing.
This market resolves YES if there is another day before 22nd October in which at least 20 people report not receiving their loans for 4 hours or more after the usual time (which I believe is midnight Pacific Time). Otherwise resolves NO.
Midnight on 22nd itself doesn't count.
If Manifold reduces loans, that doesn't trigger resolution. If they eliminate loans, resolves YES. If they reduce them so much that it's taking the piss, like 0.001% or something, I'll resolve YES.
1,000
3.00Well, being as generous as I can about what counts as a "report" I can only get up to 15. (7 liking my comment, me, one person in the comments who didn't like the comment, and a maximum of 6 people in the Discord who didn't like or comment here.
Resolves NO.
What a wild fucking ride this was. The day before my market closed something that's kind of a half NO LOAN day happens. Jeez.
@TP8ac2 interesting. That makes it sound like about half of the users should be affected! I don't have discord on my phone, but I'll log on tonight and see if there's any more discussion of people saying that they personally were affected.
(People may be less likely to report now that the explanation has come out, but maybe they would be willing to do so to help this market resolve "correctly".)
Ok, with a couple of hours left, I'm going to make a few rulings.
First of all, it's worth noting that the motivation for this market was whether there would be a repeat of 28/08/23. As far as I know, on that day, everybody's loan was delayed by 13 hours due to a site-wide bug that was eventually fixed. One thing we know is that 21/10/23 was not a repeat of that event. Something definitely happened, but it's not clear exactly what, and it certainly didn't affect everybody.
Does the "something" that happened constitute a NO LOAN day? I'll defer to the letter of the market on that one. 20 reports is what's required. In response to @june below, I think if we had a repeat of 28/08/23, I would have got 20 reports on this market (or on discord). On 28/08/23, loads of people were talking about the loans (because it affected everybody). So yeah, maybe the "something" that happened yesterday affected more than 20 people, but that wasn't what this market was trying to get at. (If you like, getting 20 reports was a proxy for it being "a big enough deal that enough people are talking about it that there are 20 reports.) So I'm fairly relaxed about resolving NO on the basis of getting far fewer than 20 reports, despite the fact that something clearly happened. Bettors should have priced in the chances of this market getting shared/boosted/algorithm'd sufficiently for 20 people to see it. (YES bettors are, of course, within their rights to try to share this market to get it sufficient visibility to get the 20 reports.) Finally on this point, I would note that I didn't require people to like my comment below (which is at risk of getting buried, as all comments are), and I also count reports on discord. (This was clarified in comments below.)
@brubsby makes a good point that some reports may be mistaken. This is true. I think @EvanDaniel went on a bit of a journey on this one. Other people might not have checked thoroughly and their report may still be incorrect. (Others may be fraudulent, although that seems unlikely.) First off, we don't need to worry about this if we don't get 20 reports. If we get over 20 reports, my default assumption will be that all reports are genuine, but if somebody requests some time to do some investigation, I will allow them to do so and will take their results into consideration. I'm not going to take responsibility for trying to check the veracity of reports myself.
(Nobody's asked, but just to clarify that any loan failure on 22/10/23 is irrelevant for this market as stated in the description. And of course, midnight on 22/10/23 means the 12am that comes before the "day" of 22/10/23. This isn't really important, because the event in question was on the 21st, but just thought I'd state it explicitly.)
The market is open for a couple more hours. Feel free to keep trading for that time. I'm about to sleep, so don't expect anything more from me for a while. As I said in an earlier comment, reports that come in after market close are still valid, but at some point I will just draw a line and say no more, resolving on the basis of the number of reports at that time. If anybody wants to investigate mistaken reports (or request the time to do so), or if anybody wants to request more time for any other reason, let me know in the next 12 hours or so. If nobody requests more time, and if the number of reports is sufficiently different from 20 that I think resolution is clear-cut, I will resolve without warning. (Or rather, this comment here is your warning.)
Hope that's all clear and fair. Any questions, please ask.
@brubsby agreed. Hopefully people will check carefully. I think I also had a coincidental display bug on the mobile app where my balance failed to update. It looked right eventually on the balance graph and desktop though.
@june Just popping in to add another report of no loan for the last two days now, to that point that it led me to find this market when searching for whether there was an update doing away with the loan system completely on the site or something else had happened.
I'm going to be busy for a day or so so might not have time to keep on top of this. I've sold my position so I shouldn't be too biased, but I've decided that the key thing that needs to happen before the deadline is the no loan day itself, not us working out exactly what happened. It seems to be a little bit hard to tell if we've had a no loan day or not, so I'm going to let us take as long as it takes to work out if it happened (and if 20 people were affected). I think this is in line with both the spirit and the letter of the description, which doesn't say anything about the reports needing to be made in the deadline.
(I'm sure it'll become clear in a day or so, but not going to commit to anything.)
Please like this comment IF AND ONLY IF you wish to report not receiving your loan today. Hopefully this will make it easier to count. We will add one because I can't like my own comment.
(This doesn't override what I've said elsewhere about discord counting, and I'll also count comments in this market, but it would make my life easier if you like this comment as well. If anybody is up for asking those on discord to come here and like this comment I'd appreciate that!)
@Fion 20 people is a really high number to expect to find and read these comments. If that’s the number of likes required, I expect the resolution of this market will have much more to do with the algorithm’s treatment of this market than anything about loans.
@june I just mentioned this in a lengthy comment above, but just to respond directly, people don't need to like that comment to be counted. The description of the market says people just need to report not getting their loan. They can do that by commenting on this market, posting on discord, or any other reasonable place, as long as I am made aware of it somehow. My like-collecting comment was my idea to try to make it easier to count, although I realise it may have been a bit short-sighted given comments can quickly get buried. (Manifold really need to implement functionality for pinning comments.)
@TP8ac2 a couple reports on discord, not sure how many are duplicates or whether reactions count as reports.
https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1165258197146280058
@EvanDaniel I'll count discord comments but probably not reactions (unless there's a reaction that is commonly understood as an unambiguous "me too" sentiment).
For the risk of duplicates, we'll do it case by case. If the accounts are obviously the same person (e.g. identical username) we'll remove them. If it's not obvious, we'll only remove them if somebody says "I think John Smith and @example are the same person". If there's controversy we'll deal with it when we get there.
@Fion also it's worth remembering that the spirit of the market is "will there be a day where loans aren't paid?". I don't want to get too much into lawyering what counts as a report.
@Fion Actually at the moment I'd like to rescind my report. I think I received the loan but no notification, and my displayed balance was low because sometimes the mobile app is weird like that. My available balance graph looks like I got the loan.