How many more NO LOAN days will there be in 2023? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
resolved Dec 31
5 (Most recent No Loan day was 12/18, which was the 4th)




This counts only days after market creation. By my count there were about 5 of these days so far, of varying severity.

Doesn't have to be site-wide, let's say it counts as long as three or more users credibly report they didn't get their loan on a day.

Each option will resolve one at a time as these incidents occur, or will resolve NO at the end of the if they don't. If more than 4 incidents occur, I will add more options.

Hopefully this market can be useful by providing a place to report such incidents, without a new market needing to be created after each incident.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

They fixed it! (Probably)

bought Ṁ100 of 6 NO

I think the rest of these can resolve now.

@EvanDaniel Agreed!

I note that 7, 8, and 9 can all be resolved NO right now, since even if today and tomorrow qualify as NO LOAN days, that's still no more than 6.

IMO failing to click the button doesn't count but if people click the button and it doesn't work when it should, that's equivalent to a no loan day

@Joshua Everyone: If you want to resolve some answers to Yes, be sure to click the loan button multiple times very very quickly, you might be able to get no loan.

@Eliza I recommend everyone click it as fast as they can at exactly midnight pacific time

@chrisjbillington Did anyone manage to NOT get a loan today yet, by clicking twice before the system recognized your first one?

bought Ṁ100 of 5 (Most recent No Lo... NO

So uhh... what happens now that there's a new loan method

@Marnix You buy NO and profit


as long as three or more users credibly report they didn't get their loan on a day.

Now we find out whether the creator is a spirit or a letter kind of guy

I gathered more information then bet No on 5. It looks like the error was most likely not related to recent code changes to the loan system and more like "about the same as other stuff that has happened in the past"

I think it should probably be trading just a little bit above where 4 was, and if tonight's loans succeed, it can probably be a little below where 4 was?

There is also a chance that /Sinclair/will-the-big-api-change-im-about-to could cause something, but that's not trading terribly high either.

@Eliza Why wouldn’t more connection time out errors occur by the end of the year? Is it just a rare thing or was it fixed or

@TheBayesian That's why I think it should be trading at around the same rate as "4" was trading -- when I started looking for this info, "5" was trading at like 58%, which seemed way too high. Remember, the previous No Loan Day before this one was over a month ago!

@Eliza I see, that makes sense ty!

bought Ṁ40 of 5 (Most recent No Lo... NO

Just to be clear, if an intentional change results in numerous people (correctly) not getting loans, that would not be a "NO LOAN DAY"?

sold Ṁ23 of 5 (Most recent No Lo... YES

@Eliza Correct, some people are deliberately ineligible for loans and if Manifold deliberately makes more people ineligible for loans that's not enough for this market. This market is about accidental missed loans.

Resolving 4 to yes. If we get another no loan day, it will be the 5th one for this market!

bought Ṁ10 of 6 YES

I believe today there are reports from @EvanDaniel @TheBayesian and @Weezing that they didn't get their loans. That should resolve 4 to yes, although I'll wait to see if I'm misunderstanding something.

Per my previous comments, if the staff have to manually fix this it still counts as a no loans day and "4" will resolve Yes

soldṀ405 (Most recent No Lo... NO

So, what does Joshua know, and from whom did he learn it????

The loan rules are getting some changes. Deliberately denying over-leveraged users loans wouldn't resolve this market, but I think the fact that they're doing anything with the loan code increases the base rate of a glitch that would resolve this market.

bought Ṁ10 of 5 (Most recent No Lo... NO

We just had a double loan day! Manifold seems to be more on top of their loan code than usual now so hopefully no more No Loan days this year.

Okay we just got early loans for some reason... I think tomorrow should not count as a no loan day if this means our loans were just moved up?

@Joshua Yeah I'd agree.

The loans we just got are labelled for Nov 4th in the notifications db (presumably a timezone bug because it's already Nov 4th UTC). So whether or not we get loans after midnight PT will be some evidence about whether this mislabelling (which happened the other day due to late loans) causes the next day's loans to be missed.