Trade cautiously, I'm considering tweaking the precise resolution criteria. See the comments.
I've had constant tinnitus since 2020. Mysterious cause. I was in my twenties at the time and I've never really listened to loud music or been exposed to loud noises without ear protection. It hasn't got worse or better over time. It only very rarely stops me hearing things, and I don't notice it when I'm out and about in a noisy environment.
I expect that I'll have it for the rest of my life, but maybe it'll disappear as mysteriously as it came? Maybe AI will solve all medicine and there'll be a cure?
If we reach 2050 and I still have tinnitus every day, market resolves NO. If, at any point between now and then, I ever notice not hearing the ringing, I'll begin the resolution experiment.
The resolution experiment:
Every day for 30 days, I will sit in a quiet environment for a few minutes and listen for the ringing. I will make a note of whether I hear no tinnitus or any tinnitus at all (even very quiet or intermittent). At the end of the 30 days, if I noted absolutely zero tinnitus 15 or more times, market resolves YES. If I miss a day, I'll still do 30 days but they just won't be consecutive. If I don't get 15 tinnitus-free sessions, the market stays open.
The first resolution experiment is triggered by the first instance of not having tinnitus, but subsequent ones will occur if I subjectively feel it's worth it. If the first one was really close and I'm excited and it's not too onerous to keep the "diary", I might roll straight into a second one. If it was not close and it was a pain in the bum to keep track, I might wait a while before doing the next one. If it starts getting close to close date I might do more experiments.
Note that this means the market could resolve YES even if my tinnitus isn't completely gone. But I've had it every day for almost 6 years, so having 15 quiet episodes in a month is a radical departure. And I didn't want to set too high a bar, because I know everybody gets tinnitus from time to time.
I will not trade in this market.
Disregard any AI bullshit below this point.
1,000People are also trading
I had it for about 2 years and it was pretty annoying and then it went away at some point but must have been gradual because i didn't really think about it for a while and then realized i hadn't noticed it for a while. idrk. probably your case is worse though, just adding an anecdote. fwiw i'm a bit skeptical of this resolution criterion, I don't consider myself to have it but when i concentrate on "trying" to hear it i can, the brain will make you sense things you're used to sensing if you concentrate on it / try to sense it
@Bayesian That's interesting, thanks for sharing.
Yeah, I was mulling over possible resolution criteria for a few days. I wanted something relatively objective, rather than just "will I consider myself to be cured". But that's interesting that you can hear it if you try to. But you made a big YES bet even though if you're right about the resolution criterion, YES is less likely...?
@Fion I'm considering changing the resolution criteria, subject to approval by @Bayesian (as the only person who traded before I put the warning in the description). But no promises. The current criteria might stand.
If lots of people report a similar experience to Bayesian here: /Fion/can-you-hear-a-ringing-in-your-ears then I'm more likely to propose a change to the resolution criteria.
But you made a big YES bet even though
based on the title, but imo a vibe-resolution criterion would be totally fine here. also fine to keep the current criterion ofc