Are San Francisco's existing initiatives and policies enough to achieve Abundant Housing in the next five years?

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resolved Dec 16

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This question is a test for Roote's Civic Dashboard (https://civicdash.org/), where we're experimenting with the use of prediction markets as a more intelligent form of civic polling. It's designed to be open-ended, and is somewhat ambiguous. For us, abundant housing is a civic goal that entails that: - All citizens in San Francisco have access to accommodation that provides the basic necessities for life and personal happiness - After paying for such accommodation, citizens still have enough money to afford personal necessities If you have other thoughts on our approach to civic polling or our philosophy of abundant housing, please leave a comment or join our Discord (https://discord.gg/5eXgs8r9HT).

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#️ Politics

#San Francisco

#Housing markets

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Unclear criteria, small market, and inactive creator. Resolving N/A.

@FinnMacken81bd If this is a mistake, please let me know! These seem like very interesting topics that I'd love to see more of, but the questions as written don't seem like a good fit for a prediction market because the resolution criteria is unclear. I think they could be reworked into something interesting or re-created as polls; let me know if you'd like help with that!

@FinnMacken81bd How and when will this resolve?

(I don't think SF will succeed at lowering rents significantly over the next 5 years.) Re: this Civic Dashboard project, I don't like the open-ended, ambiguous nature of these questions. Rather than aiming for "a more intelligent form of civic polling", I would be much more interested in seeing a true counterfactual prediction market about several housing policies that SF might potentially adopt. For instance: "How much housing will SF construct by 2025 if there are no new state or local housing laws?" "How much housing... if California passes SB50 this year?" "How much housing... if SF eliminates parking minimums?" "How much housing... if SF implements rent control on 15+ year old buildings?" "How much housing... if CA passes a major reform of CEQA?" Plus maybe a non-counterfactual market: "How much housing will SF construct by 2025, for realsies?" This structure would help to identify which policies would do the most to help, and it could potentially be used to help hold SF accountable if they are setting unrealistic targets for amounts of new construction that will not be met without policy change.

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