Are San Francisco's existing initiatives and policies enough to achieve Abundant Housing in the next five years?
Jan 1
This question is a test for Roote's Civic Dashboard (, where we're experimenting with the use of prediction markets as a more intelligent form of civic polling. It's designed to be open-ended, and is somewhat ambiguous. For us, abundant housing is a civic goal that entails that: - All citizens in San Francisco have access to accommodation that provides the basic necessities for life and personal happiness - After paying for such accommodation, citizens still have enough money to afford personal necessities If you have other thoughts on our approach to civic polling or our philosophy of abundant housing, please leave a comment or join our Discord (
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JacksonWagner avatar
Jackson Wagnerbought Ṁ50 of NO
(I don't think SF will succeed at lowering rents significantly over the next 5 years.) Re: this Civic Dashboard project, I don't like the open-ended, ambiguous nature of these questions. Rather than aiming for "a more intelligent form of civic polling", I would be much more interested in seeing a true counterfactual prediction market about several housing policies that SF might potentially adopt. For instance: "How much housing will SF construct by 2025 if there are no new state or local housing laws?" "How much housing... if California passes SB50 this year?" "How much housing... if SF eliminates parking minimums?" "How much housing... if SF implements rent control on 15+ year old buildings?" "How much housing... if CA passes a major reform of CEQA?" Plus maybe a non-counterfactual market: "How much housing will SF construct by 2025, for realsies?" This structure would help to identify which policies would do the most to help, and it could potentially be used to help hold SF accountable if they are setting unrealistic targets for amounts of new construction that will not be met without policy change.