Are San Francisco's existing initiatives and policies enough to achieve Abundant Housing in the next five years?

Finn Macken

Ṁ314

Ṁ102

Jan 1

10%

chance

ALL

This question is a test for Roote's Civic Dashboard (https://civicdash.org/), where we're experimenting with the use of prediction markets as a more intelligent form of civic polling. It's designed to be open-ended, and is somewhat ambiguous. For us, abundant housing is a civic goal that entails that: - All citizens in San Francisco have access to accommodation that provides the basic necessities for life and personal happiness - After paying for such accommodation, citizens still have enough money to afford personal necessities If you have other thoughts on our approach to civic polling or our philosophy of abundant housing, please leave a comment or join our Discord (https://discord.gg/5eXgs8r9HT).

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Constraints Reduction housing legislation passes first reading at the San Francisco Board of Supervisors by 2023-11-28

Mike

2% chance

Will the Constraints Reduction housing legislation pass the San Francisco Board of Supervisors by 2023-12-22?

Mike

62% chance

Will an Amtrak Avelia Liberty trainset make a routine passenger run before Jan. 1, 2025?

jpoet

41% chance

Will Builders remedy take effect for San Francisco in 2023?

Kevin Kwok

29% chance

Local San Mateo: Will this weirdly bandaged/protected tree not be like that by Dec 2023?

Ernie

47% chance

Will walkable cities be a culture war flashpoint during 2024?

Wilcox Boon

43% chance

Will SF homelessness (unsheltered) counts be higher in 2023 than in 2022

VivaLaPanda

62% chance

Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by end of 2023?

Carson Gale

6% chance

Local San Mateo: Will B Street station be fully gone by mid Dec 2023?

Ernie

39% chance

Will the homicide rate in San Francisco rise in 2023?

DismalScientist

41% chance

Will larceny/theft (including car theft) increase in San Francisco in 2024 compared to 2023?

Danny O'Brien🤖

43% chance

Will Cruise relaunch driverless taxis in San Francisco by June 30 2024?

Marcus Abramovitch

31% chance

Will the NYC subway hit 75% of its prepandemic peak ridership levels by end of December 2023?

Shaked Koplewitz

38% chance

Will train traffic on the Dovre line be restored before December 2023?

Stig Johan

10% chance

Will Oakland CA homicide rates fall from 2022-2023?

Radicalia

64% chance

Will Burlington, VT commission a study on Land Value Tax and/or Split Rate Property Tax before the end of 2023?

Lars Doucet

44% chance

Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?

S G

19% chance

How many housing units will be built in California by 2025 because of 2022-2023 'builder's remedy' permits?

🦔

41K

In 2023, will the city of Austin make a law that requires airbnb to obtain a city of Austin license to host guests before allowing users to make host accounts?

Chris Canal

40% chance

45. Will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour at the end of 2023?

Sort by:

Jackson Wagnerbought Ṁ50 of NO

(I don't think SF will succeed at lowering rents significantly over the next 5 years.) Re: this Civic Dashboard project, I don't like the open-ended, ambiguous nature of these questions. Rather than aiming for "a more intelligent form of civic polling", I would be much more interested in seeing a true counterfactual prediction market about several housing policies that SF might potentially adopt. For instance: "How much housing will SF construct by 2025 if there are no new state or local housing laws?" "How much housing... if California passes SB50 this year?" "How much housing... if SF eliminates parking minimums?" "How much housing... if SF implements rent control on 15+ year old buildings?" "How much housing... if CA passes a major reform of CEQA?" Plus maybe a non-counterfactual market: "How much housing will SF construct by 2025, for realsies?" This structure would help to identify which policies would do the most to help, and it could potentially be used to help hold SF accountable if they are setting unrealistic targets for amounts of new construction that will not be met without policy change.