Will 5,000+ people live in a new city in the Bay Area financed by Silicon Valley moguls by 2030?
112
799
2k
2029
37%
chance

Background: Silicon Valley elites revealed as buyers of $800m of land to build utopian city

This market will be resolved according to the spirit of the question—whether a new Bay Area city becomes real. Cities which exist at the time of the creation of this question will not count. Financing does not necessarily need to come exclusively (or even majority) from Silicon Valley moguls.

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bought Ṁ250 of NO

"In a state where land politics are so difficult it can take years to build a duplex, it could be a decade of process before a shovel is even lifted for the project.

That kind of timeline will most likely test the patience of investors .... who are used to the fast and lightly regulated world of technology.

First up, in all likelihood, is an election. Solano County has a longstanding slow-growth ordinance that county voters would probably have to override before any major building could begin.

After that comes a gantlet of environmental rules, inevitable lawsuits and potential tussles with the state’s Air Resources Board, the Water Resources Control Board, Public Utilities Commission and Department of Transportation — not to mention the local planning commission and board of supervisors who oversee land use in Solano County.

Some experienced developers say the project’s chances are so remote that they will be stunned if it comes to fruition.

- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/29/business/economy/california-land-solano-county.html

The NYT is not having it lol... but "decades" is yikes.

@twink_joan_didion I wish someone would build it anyway and dare the state to send in the army to stop them from building housing in a state that has a hundred thousand homeless.

@JonathanRay the clusterfuck of rules and laws around construction lacks any moral legitimacy whatsoever and should be evaded by any means that could possibly work.

predicts NO

@JonathanRay I'd like someone to do an experiment where they abolish all zoning and planning permissions and make all construction allowed no matter what. If a project causes externalities people can sue and prove specific quantifiable damages to get compensation.

2030 is a very tight timeline for qualifying for the ballot, getting CEQA approvals, plans, entitlements, actually physically building the units and then getting people to move in. If anyone files a lawsuit (I can think of several entities that would try) that could put things on hold for multiple years.

I'm not saying it can't be done it's just extremely tight.

FWIW 5000 people on 55000 acres is one person per 11 acres which would be pretty wildly low density.

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