FairlyRandom announcements

100Ṁ29

2999

59%

chance

ALL

Updates regarding FairlyRandom downtime or other issues will be posted here. Please follow this market if you would like to receive notifications for that.

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Please don't test FairlyRandom here, for that use the test market instead:

FairlyRandom

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This market resolves NO in a year.

1% chance

This market resolves NO in a year.

All answers resolve to YES when an AI wins IMO gold. Each answer resolves to NO with X% chance each year.

Universal free fall violation (amplified 100x)

50% chance

What is the log of lowest number rolled before AI wins IMO gold

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Some markets are not showing up in the group API and therefore are not receiving comments correctly -- unclear why.

12mo

Okay, I put in a workaround for the group issue and I think we're fully back in business now -- as a bonus, it should now be possible to use FairlyRandom even in markets without the #FairlyRandom tag. I still need to make a few tweaks for robustness but hopefully things are working now. Please retry any existing pending requests that are still stuck.

FairlyRandom is currently down due to an issue accessing the Manifold API. Will update when it is resolved.

Seems to be fixed now, you may need to re-request any rolls that are still pending.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

This market resolves NO in a year.

1% chance

This market resolves NO in a year.

All answers resolve to YES when an AI wins IMO gold. Each answer resolves to NO with X% chance each year.

Universal free fall violation (amplified 100x)

50% chance

What is the log of lowest number rolled before AI wins IMO gold

68% chance

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

People are also trading

What is this?

People are also trading

What is this?

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