This market resolves when AI wins IMO gold. To be more precise, when the grand prize of this competition is awarded: https://aimoprize.com/

If the group that receives the grand prize announces that they have won IMO gold before the prize is awarded, then that date will be used retroactively.

Starting January 2025, each year around Jan 1 I will ask @FairlyRandom for a random number between 1 and 1024. This market resolves PROB to 10*log(lowest number rolled)/log(2).

It will resolve YES if this market resolves before 2025. It will resolve NO early if a 1 is rolled.

I will not bet on this market.

• Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - Maximum resolution: 81% (unless IMO gold was already won, but this information has not yet been made public). (AI summary of creator comment)