Will China report a deficit in foreign direct investment for at least 2 quarters in 2024?
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32
αΉ€2.2k
2025
32%
chance

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"China's first deficit in foreign investment signals West's 'de-risking' pressure" Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-first-deficit-foreign-investment-signals-wests-de-risking-pressure-2023-11-06/

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 53%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 53%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 53%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 35%, market is 53%.

filled a αΉ€85 NO at 25% order

Based on the information available, China's efforts to diversify its foreign direct investment (FDI) sources, particularly by developing new FDI routes from the Middle East, indicate a proactive approach to maintaining or increasing FDI flows. With significant partnerships and investments from Middle Eastern countries into China, it appears that China is working to counteract any potential deficits due to pressures from other regions such as the US​​. Therefore, it seems less likely that China will report a deficit in FDI for at least 2 quarters in 2024, given these efforts to bolster investment from alternative sources.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 35%, market is 54%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 54%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 54%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 54%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 60%, market is 54%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 60%, market is 54%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 60%, market is 54%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 40%, market is 54%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 54%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 35%, market is 55%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 65%, market is 55%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 40%, market is 55%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 40%, market is 55%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 50%, market is 56%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 25%, market is 56%.

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Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 55%, market is 56%.

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Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 60%, market is 56%.