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MANIFOLD
Will the Democrats win at least 222 seats? // Will Trump be impeached during his second term?
3
Ṁ1kṀ615
2029
59%
>= 222, Impeached
11%
< 222, Impeached
12%
>= 222, Not Impeached
18%
< 222, Not Impeached

This will resolve exactly according to these two underlying markets:

Market context
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bought Ṁ39 YES

You can view this market in my conditional markets viewer here. This will let you see implied probabilities like P(impeached | 222+), or place conditional bets or correlation bets.

The UI is a bit cluttered, feedback or suggested changes welcome :)