Will SpaceX bid a crewed mission for Mars Sample Return?
15
40
1k
2025
28%
chance

With Mars Sample Return mission looking slow and expensive, NASA will be soliciting new commercial proposals -- hopefully costing less than $11B and sooner than 2040.

Given SpaceX's Mars ambitions, this is conceivably a timeline and budget within which they might simply fly astronauts to Mars, pick up the rocks, and bring them back.

Will they bid such a mission in response to the upcoming NASA solicitation?

Resolves No if there is no such solicitation or if SpaceX does not submit any bid. Resolves Yes if they submit multiple such bids, with at least one including astronauts.

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Inspired by this tweet.

Details here are a little light; suggestions welcome. I haven't read enough background on this expected solicitation or MSR in general but wanted to get the question live. I won't bet until this is a little more finalized.