https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/fighting-for-survival-astra-taps-the-brakes-on-new-smallsat-launcher/

Astra’s new rocket won’t launch until 2024—if it ever flies

"We're reducing our expenses as much as we possibly can."

Will it (or a payload launched on it) succeed and reach orbit by EOY 2024?

Reach orbit means perigee above 100km. It does not have to go all the way around, but orbit means orbit, not near-orbital. If the second stage is on a re-entry (near-orbital) trajectory but the payload circularizes and reaches orbit, that counts.