Which is first: Moonbase, or California high speed rail?

Question

Moonbase: a single pressurized volume on the Moon with at least six occupants for a contiguous Earth year.

High speed rail: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse). Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph for SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums. (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections. And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)

Related: @/EvanDaniel/which-is-first-crewed-starships-to

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, High Speed Rail and Moonbase are most likely. See the market for live updates (1 traders, as of Mar 25, 2026).

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