Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?

Question

Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.

High speed rail: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse). Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums. (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections. And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)

If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Starship and High Speed Rail are most likely. See the market for live updates (51 traders, as of Jul 30, 2026).