Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the California High-Speed Rail (HSR) system becomes operational between San Francisco and Los Angeles before a human lands alive on Mars. "Operational" is defined as the commencement of regular passenger service along the full route connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles. A "human landing on Mars" is defined as a human arriving on the Martian surface alive. The resolution will be based on official announcements from the California High-Speed Rail Authority and credible space agencies or organizations involved in Mars missions.

Background

The California High-Speed Rail project aims to connect San Francisco and Los Angeles via a 494-mile route. As of March 2024, the project has faced significant delays and cost overruns, with no set timeline for the full route's completion. The current focus is on the Central Valley segment, a 171-mile stretch from Merced to Bakersfield, expected to be operational between 2030 and 2033. (latimes.com)

Regarding Mars exploration, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has predicted that the first crewed landing on Mars could occur by 2029. (digitaltrends.com) However, such timelines are subject to change due to the complexities involved in interplanetary missions.

Considerations

Both the California HSR project and human missions to Mars are ambitious endeavors with histories of delays and budgetary challenges. Investors should consider the uncertainties and potential for further postponements in both projects when making predictions.