Which is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
38
1kแน72902035
Starship60%
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.
High speed rail: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse). Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums. (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections. And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Starship land a human on Mars before California HSR transports a paying passenger to Bakersfield?
14% chance
Which happens first: Starship / Superheavy recovery or second crewed Starliner flight?
Will I beat SpaceX Starship to mars?
60% chance
Will a human land on Mars aboard Starship before high-speed rail is built between London and Manchester?
45% chance
California HSR operational between San Francisco and LA before Mars landing?
51% chance
Will SpaceX take a human to Mars before high-speed rail is built between London and Manchester?
67% chance
Will California high-speed rail use Siemens trains?
60% chance
Will there be a high-speed rail between LA and SF by the end of 2040?
44% chance
๐
Will the California High Speed Rail Initial Operating Segment open by 2030?
10% chance
Will the California HSR meet any of its ridership or revenue goals by 2030
15% chance