This resolves to the answer that encompasses the difference between the actual 2-party popular vote result, vs. the 538 polling average as of Monday Nov 4, 2024.
Actual vote totals will be taken once those are officially available and certified, after recounts and challenges. Vote totals will be rounded to the nearest 0.1% of the two-party vote (rounding to even). All options are shown to 0.1% increments and are inclusive.
See also:
/EvanDaniel/how-will-presidential-polls-538-shi
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@HillaryClinton I'm fairly confident the correct answer is the R +2.0 to +2.9 one. I will resolve on Evan's behalf but @EvanDaniel may show up to correct the math; if it needs to be re-resolved, that's my fault.
To clarify, this is popular vote - polling average, such that if the polling underestimates Dems, this resolves to one of the D options?