How will the 2024 election popular vote compare to the polls? (2-party, 538)
Premium
9
แน38kDec 2
0.4%
D +3.0 or more
0.4%
D +2.0 to +2.9
0.4%
D +1.0 to +1.9
0.5%
D +0.3 to +0.9
0.5%
R +0.2 to D +0.2
0.5%
R +0.3 to +0.9
0.7%
R +1.0 to +1.9
96%
R +2.0 to +2.9
0.7%
R +3.0 or more
This resolves to the answer that encompasses the difference between the actual 2-party popular vote result, vs. the 538 polling average as of Monday Nov 4, 2024.
Actual vote totals will be taken once those are officially available and certified, after recounts and challenges. Vote totals will be rounded to the nearest 0.1% of the two-party vote (rounding to even). All options are shown to 0.1% increments and are inclusive.
See also:
/EvanDaniel/how-will-presidential-polls-538-shi
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
To clarify, this is popular vote - polling average, such that if the polling underestimates Dems, this resolves to one of the D options?
Related questions
Related questions
How large will the popular vote margin be in the 2024 presidential election?
Which party will win the popular vote in the 2024 US Presidential election (by subgroup)?
How will the polls and narratives perform in the 2024 US presidential election? [MC - add responses]
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 62% or larger?
97% chance
What will Biden's share of the popular vote be in the 2024 election?
What will be the gap between the popular vote and the tipping point state in 2024?
Will the Democratic candidate's popular vote exceed Republican candidate's popular vote in 2024 Presidential election?
1% chance
[Metaculus] Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?
98% chance
Which pollster will be the most accurate in predicting the 2024 election results (popular vote)?
What will voter turnout be in the 2024 United States Presidential election?