Trump outperformed his polling the last two times. Polling errors are notoriously unpredictable but seems silly for this to be under 50%.

@ShakedKoplewitz Seems silly for Biden to be at 50-50 in the main market without this being very pro Biden.

@riverwalk3 I think the expectation is that the polling would shift towards Biden, not that Biden will overperform polling on election day

@StopPunting The markets on whether Trump loses his popular vote lead for more than 4 weeks at a time seems to disagree.