Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.
Arrest required; handcuffs, perp walk, and mug shot optional.
Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what constitutes an 'arrest' for this market:
An arrest does not require handcuffs, a perp walk, or a mug shot. An arrest confirmed via legal proceedings but without these public elements (e.g., Caroline Ellison's arrest) will count.
Being handcuffed and taken away in a cop car is considered sufficient to count as an arrest.
Evidence for an arrest will be based on credible reporting, court records, or similar sources.
1,000@BenM I am fairly sure it's hard to get handcuffed and taken away in a cop car without being arrested; that would be sufficient (presuming credible reporting, court records, or similar). Doesn't matter whether charges are filed or dropped or anything else subsequent to the arrest; only the arrest.
But none of the handcuffs, perp walk, or mug shot are required. Only the arrest.
For example, Caroline Ellison's arrest would qualify for this market, despite an absence of any handcuffs, perp walk, or mug shot: /AmmonLam/will-caroline-ellison-be-arrested-b-d2f09a0d9ecc