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We found that documents were entered into court record that were named as her arrest record. As best I can tell, this is supposed to be a market on her arrest, not a market on which news outlets report it or anything along those lines.
I think this can resolve YES on the basis of those court documents.
If it can't, could we get an update on what's still missing?
@EvanDaniel If I resolve this as Yes now, what probability do you think someone will come and dispute the resolution?
@AmmonLam They've had plenty of time to present evidence that it hasn't happened; they didn't. They'd be much more likely to do so by disputing before the resolution rather than after, because that's how you have the most chance of getting the right resolution and making a profit. So, I'd guess odds of a dispute being quite low.
Someone with more legal research skills could perhaps answer more definitively, and provide a clear answer as to what's an authoritative source... but I think she got arrested.
https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/66677012/united-states-v-bankman-fried/#minute-entry-214937051
@EvanDaniel If you search december 19th filings here on PACER, you can see the official docket does include the "Arrest of Caroline Ellison"
@AdamTreat Yeah, my general impression is that that's part of to proceeding, even if there aren't handcuffs or whatever. I'm not quite sure how close to a logical certainty that is in the US legal system though.
@MarcusAbramovitch how is that? If Trump has been arrested, which he has, how is this any different. You can’t be out on bail if you weren’t arrested. You can’t plead guilty either.
@DylanSlagh Evan Daniel
I come back and make a decision when one side has overwhelming conclusive evidence
@NicoDelon But regardless, she was arrested, right? Which is why "Arrest of Caroline Ellison" is a document that was entered into the court record?
@BTE I’m not saying she wasn’t. I’m just pointing to a major difference between her case and Trump’s. You asked how this was different.
@NicoDelon But you are saying you think there's a > 3% chance she wasn't / won't be arrested, or that this market will be resolved incorrectly, based on your trading.
@NicoDelon They are still likely to bring indictments formally against her at some point. It can happen in reverse. Grand juries take time and sometimes people just want to plead guilty as fast as possible before others beat them to it.
@EvanDaniel I think @NicoDelon is just criticizing my sloppy argument. Correctly I suppose.
@BTE Yeah, I think the criticism of the sloppy reasoning is fair. But based on trading history I don't think @NicoDelon is just doing that ;)
@EvanDaniel My 5 mana on NO? No, that’s just a cheap way to profit from potential downswings in the market—it’s not 100% obvious she was arrested and there’s no clear resolution criterion.