Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before the end of 2023?
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resolved Oct 1
Resolved
YES

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predicted YES

We found that documents were entered into court record that were named as her arrest record. As best I can tell, this is supposed to be a market on her arrest, not a market on which news outlets report it or anything along those lines.

I think this can resolve YES on the basis of those court documents.

If it can't, could we get an update on what's still missing?

@EvanDaniel If I resolve this as Yes now, what probability do you think someone will come and dispute the resolution?

bought Ṁ2,500 of YES

@AmmonLam It’s been very firmly established using the court docket. Nothing to dispute.

predicted YES

@AmmonLam You could create a market for that though.

predicted YES

@AmmonLam They've had plenty of time to present evidence that it hasn't happened; they didn't. They'd be much more likely to do so by disputing before the resolution rather than after, because that's how you have the most chance of getting the right resolution and making a profit. So, I'd guess odds of a dispute being quite low.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

So basically this should have resolved a few days after it was created?

bought Ṁ3 of YES

@EvanDaniel If you search december 19th filings here on PACER, you can see the official docket does include the "Arrest of Caroline Ellison"

predicted YES

Thanks! For the curious, you can sign up and get that info for free. Here's a screenshot:

If she plead guilty to a criminal violation then she must have been arrested at some point

predicted YES

@AdamTreat Yeah, my general impression is that that's part of to proceeding, even if there aren't handcuffs or whatever. I'm not quite sure how close to a logical certainty that is in the US legal system though.

Are the changes in this market based on new information?

@DylanSlagh I don’t understand why this market is still open.

predicted NO

@BTE Was she arrested?

predicted NO

@BTE that is not an arrest

@MarcusAbramovitch how is that? If Trump has been arrested, which he has, how is this any different. You can’t be out on bail if you weren’t arrested. You can’t plead guilty either.

sold Ṁ10 of NO

@BTE I don't think I'm convinced yet but I'm interested in hearing more

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@BTE

Chatgpt agrees :)

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@AmmonLam Care to weigh in?

@DylanSlagh Can someone confirm ChatGPT's legal advice is valid?

predicted YES

@AmmonLam Did you try asking ChatGPT? ;)

@DylanSlagh any response from plaintiff GPT?

predicted YES

@DylanSlagh Evan Daniel
I come back and make a decision when one side has overwhelming conclusive evidence

@BTE Trump was indicted. She never was. She pleaded guilty early.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon And she was arrested.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon But regardless, she was arrested, right? Which is why "Arrest of Caroline Ellison" is a document that was entered into the court record?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@BTE I’m not saying she wasn’t. I’m just pointing to a major difference between her case and Trump’s. You asked how this was different.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon But you are saying you think there's a > 3% chance she wasn't / won't be arrested, or that this market will be resolved incorrectly, based on your trading.

predicted YES

@NicoDelon They are still likely to bring indictments formally against her at some point. It can happen in reverse. Grand juries take time and sometimes people just want to plead guilty as fast as possible before others beat them to it.

predicted YES

@EvanDaniel I think @NicoDelon is just criticizing my sloppy argument. Correctly I suppose.

predicted YES

@BTE Yeah, I think the criticism of the sloppy reasoning is fair. But based on trading history I don't think @NicoDelon is just doing that ;)

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel My 5 mana on NO? No, that’s just a cheap way to profit from potential downswings in the market—it’s not 100% obvious she was arrested and there’s no clear resolution criterion.

predicted NO

@BTE She’ll end up behind bars no matter what.