https://phys.org/news/2023-12-japan-moon-lander-lunar-orbit.html
"Japan's SLIM space probe entered the moon's orbit on Monday in a major step towards the country's first successful lunar landing, expected next month"
"The Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) is nicknamed the "Moon Sniper" because it is designed to land within 100 meters (328 feet) of a specific target on the lunar surface. If successful, the touchdown would make Japan only the fifth country to have successfully landed a probe on the moon, after the United States, Russia, China and India."
"The lander's descent towards the moon is expected to start around 12:00 am Japan time on January 20, with its landing on the surface scheduled for 20 minutes later, JAXA said."
"Compared to previous probes that landed "a few or 10-plus kilometers" away from targets, SLIM's purported margin of error of under 100 meters suggests a level of accuracy once thought impossible, thanks to the culmination of a 20-year effort by researchers, according to JAXA."
"Japanese missions have failed twice—one public and one private."
Resolution Criteria:
-The SLIM probe must land successfully and return telemetry data for this market to resolve YES.
-Market will resolve YES if the SLIM probe lands within 100 meters of its target.
-Market will resolve YES if the SLIM probe lands 100 meters from its target.
-Market will resolve NO if the SLIM probe lands greater than 100 meters from its target.
-Market will resolve NO if the SLIM probe crash lands within 100 meters of its target.
-Market will resolve NO if the SLIM probe crash lands 100 meters from its target.
Crash landing+no telemetry = unsuccessful
Crash landing+telemetry = unsuccessful
Smooth landing+no telemetry = unsuccessful
Smooth landing+telemetry = successful
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ91 | |
| 2 | Ṁ71 | |
| 3 | Ṁ50 | |
| 4 | Ṁ37 | |
| 5 | Ṁ30 |
Official press release (English version):
https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2024/01/20240125-1_e.html
"Analysis of the data acquired before shutting down the power confirmed that SLIM had reached the Moon’s surface approximately 55m east of the original target landing site. The positional accuracy before the commencement of the obstacle avoidance maneuver (at around a 50m altitude) which indicates the pinpoint landing performance, was evaluated to be at approximately 10m or less, possibly about 3 - 4m. While more detailed evaluation continues, it is reasonable to mention that the technology demonstration of pinpoint landing within an accuracy of 100m, which has been declared to be the main mission of SLIM, has been achieved."
Congrats Japan! 🇯🇵🇯🇵🇯🇵
Official JAXA press release makes it clear telemetry was received and error was 55 m (East). "電源をオフにするまでに取得した各データの分析を行った結果, SLIMが当初の目標着地地点から東側に55m程度の位置で月面に到達していることが確認できました."
https://www.jaxa.jp/press/2024/01/20240125-1_j.html
@SanghyeonSeo Damn. That's actually really impressive. I'm happy I was proved wrong here.
Looks like it was only about 10 m off target! https://twitter.com/dirkpitt2050/status/1750387525477400890?t=66HVf5IoCoFp6IE96BqzQg&s=19
Wait, maybe it's 55 m? Either way it's under the threshold https://twitter.com/dirkpitt2050/status/1750393165499293949?t=WpBY2Q4ZbzxblfY6eE0GOA&s=19
Scott Manley
Japan Lands On The Moon.... Upside Down? Astrobotic's Moon Lander Lands On Earth?
Official Press Release:
https://global.jaxa.jp/press/2024/01/20240120-1_e.html
"The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) confirms that the Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) successfully landed on the moon surface on January 20, 2024, at 0:20 am (JST). Communication with spacecraft has been established after the landing. However, the solar cells are currently not generating power, and priority is given to data acquisition from the SLIM on the moon. Detailed analysis of the acquired data will be conducted in the future, and we will continue to share any updates on the situation."
So far, the criteria of smooth landing and reception of telemetry have been met.
Market resolution will be determined by reports of distance from the target. In the press conference, officials said more time is needed to determine the 100m accuracy. Another press conference scheduled for next week.
@Dynd I heard on the press conference they would be giving another update next week about the accuracy of the landing site.
@TimDuffy "Japanese missions have failed twice—one public and one private."
"Last year, the country unsuccessfully sent a lunar probe named Omotenashi as part of the United States' Artemis 1 mission."
"In April, Japanese startup ispace tried in vain to become the first private company to land on the moon, losing communication with its craft after what it described as a "hard landing"."
I agree, the percentage for YES seems high, maybe they have learned a lot from their failed attempts and have worked out the previous problems. It could also be bias from traders that are excited and hoping all goes well. Hopium?