MANIFOLD
Total number of Starlink re-entries in 2026?
2
แน€1kแน€812
2027
33%
200-700
23%
701-800
23%
801-900
23%
901-1000
23%
1001-1200
23%
1500+

Resolves according to https://spaceweather.com/ - "Starlink Statistics"


Background:
https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=18&month=03&year=2026

Data Sources:
1 - https://planet4589.org/space/con/star/stats.html

2 - https://aerospace.org/reentries/grid

3 - https://www.spacex.com/launches


Criteria:
Spaceweather.com is updated nearly everyday. Market will resolve based on 2026 total displayed on Dec 31st, 2026 11:59 PM (Eastern Time) regardless if the data has been updated for that day. For example: 2026 total could display "905" Updated: 29 Dec 2026 and the market will resolve YES 901-1000 and all other options will resolve NO.

If the sidebar on Spaceweather.com is removed, I will post additional comments with instructions on how the total will be determined from the data sources above. If access to the data is not available, and no other suitable alternatives exist, market will resolve N/A.

*Options will resolve NO as the total number for that option is surpassed. For example, Iff the total reaches 701, the 200-700 option resolves NO immediately.

Market context
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