Will Elon Musk announce the creation of a new AI company before 2024?
resolved Jul 12

Resolves to true if any communication from Musk or confirmed public releases mentions Musk as a core member (shareholder, CEO, founder, board member, etc.) of a new AI organization or company.

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Mirek avatar
Quantum Gamblerbought Ṁ318 of YES

First prompt for the xAI, how to beat Zuckerberg

jgyou avatar
JGYpredicted NO
ahalekelly avatar


Seems like Twitter is changing its name to X, so x.ai won't be a new company but rather a project within Twitter?

ahalekelly avatar
Adrianbought Ṁ100 of NO

@ahalekelly SpaceX has dozens of legal subsidiaries and holding companies for various assets, but nobody would call them separate companies.

I guess The Boring Company is a separate company though? It started out as a subsidiary of SpaceX but now operates somewhat independently and has raised VC money on its own. And it has its own public brand. But when it was first announced it would have been very unclear how independent it would end up being.

HankyUSA avatar
Luke Hankspredicted NO

@EsbenKran, how will you resolve this market if there's a new AI company that's a subsidiary of Twitter on paper, but doesn't appear to operate independent of Twitter?

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted YES

@ahalekelly It is not X that is a part of Twitter; it is Twitter that becomes a part of X. X is a newly created company that intends to do everything app-based. Elon has said that Twitter is an accelerator to X. X is a new company and seems like it is going to have AI as a major focus. X.ai is an new ai company.

HankyUSA avatar
Luke Hankspredicted NO

@Birger, I think that's another question for @EsbenKran.

@EsbenKran, what qualifies as an "AI company" for the purposes of this market? For example, Google does a lot of AI stuff. Is Google an AI company? What about Meta?

This also makes me think about what qualifies as "new" for the purposes of this market. For example, a few years ago Google restructured from Google with a bunch of subsidiaries and internal teams into Alphabet with a bunch of subsidiaries (one of which was named Google). Was Alphabet a new company or was that just a name change? Was Google a new company? Were the new subsidiaries of Alphabet that were previously just internal teams at Google new companies?

galaga avatar
galagabought Ṁ1 of NO

To note: the filing doesn't actually refer to it as an AI company. The .ai might just be a cool catchy name / domain. Can be quite sure, but would hold off on being 100% sure.

makoyass avatar
mako yasspredicted NO

@galaga Yeah, it describes itself as a scheduling tool. That wouldn't really require any advances in AI. I want to, but shouldn't say "scheduling is just a constraint optimization problem", similar to saying "it's just autocomplete", to do those tasks optimally invites us to develop AGI, but doing it well enough to make a useful product doesn't require any new work in AI, and no ML technology that I'm currently familiar with seems like it would be useful there.

Elon's past discussion of "X" was an "everything app". Such a thing could use AI, but the concept was mostly about vertically integrating pretty standard social technologies, similar to wechat.

The way this is described, this does not actually sound like an "AI organization" to me. It probably is, he's been planning this, but could be a while before we find out whether it really is.

makoyass avatar
mako yasspredicted NO

@makoyass Oh, lol, learning that the scheduling tool had nothing to do with musk, it was just the previous owner of the domain xD

mvdm avatar
mvdmbought Ṁ600 of YES
Ace avatar
Acebought Ṁ50 of YES

I think this is enough for a YES resolution. The phrase "announce the creation" seems like it includes a corporate incorporation filing, and the criterion "board member" is met by the statement, "Mr. Musk is the only listed director of the company," from the WSJ article.

VictorLJZ avatar
Victor Libought Ṁ6,050 of YES

@JacyAnthis agreed, this should be sufficient for a YES resolution

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackbought Ṁ60 of NO

also see this https://www.ft.com/content/2a96995b-c799-4281-8b60-b235e84aefe4

It should wait a bit to resolve so the purpose of 'x.ai' can be clarified. How sure are we it isn't just a holding company or something with a cool name? I mean, pretty sure, but >99%?

EsbenKran avatar
Esben Kran

@jacksonpolack Yeah, we'll wait for more information, though I agree with the conclusions here.

BairAiushin avatar
Bair Aiushinbought Ṁ100 of NO

Twitter recently purchased ~10k GPUs to help get started with its Artificial Intelligence efforts

makoyass avatar
mako yasspredicted NO

@jgyou Elon isn't idealistic enough to think that armistice will hold, nor is he cynical enough to refuse to sign given that. He likely expects it to fail. Most of the signatories do.

Birger avatar
Birgerbought Ṁ10 of NO

this seem way to high, what would a new ai company do that non of his exsisting do?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ50 of YES

@Birger Large Language Models?? I

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted NO

@BTE Twitter is doing that, or they at least hired for it.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted YES

@Birger Makes zero sense to do research like that with actual potential value inside the dumpster fire that is twitter. Exclusively license the Twitter firehose to a new company makes tons more sense ultimately. OpenAI basically serves this purpose for Microsoft. There are many reasons it was better for Microsoft to have OpenAI do this work because they could move faster, take more risks and it won't break the company if it goes horribly wrong.

Birger avatar
Birgerpredicted NO

@BTE I think there is credible reason Elon Musk is a billionaire, and so I'll assume he knows what he is doing. I don't know what is smartest, but I do think making a truth-aiming ChatGPT-like thing would fit what he wants to achieve, which is to make Twitter the best source for truth.