Will Elon Musk announce the creation of a new AI company before 2024?
46%
chance

Resolves to true if any communication from Musk or confirmed public releases mentions Musk as a core member (shareholder, CEO, founder, board member, etc.) of a new AI organization or company.

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Birger avatar
Birgerbought Ṁ10 of NO

this seem way to high, what would a new ai company do that non of his exsisting do?

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsbought Ṁ50 of YES

@Birger Large Language Models?? I

Birger avatar
Birgeris predicting NO at 50%

@BTE Twitter is doing that, or they at least hired for it.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardsis predicting YES at 50%

@Birger Makes zero sense to do research like that with actual potential value inside the dumpster fire that is twitter. Exclusively license the Twitter firehose to a new company makes tons more sense ultimately. OpenAI basically serves this purpose for Microsoft. There are many reasons it was better for Microsoft to have OpenAI do this work because they could move faster, take more risks and it won't break the company if it goes horribly wrong.

Birger avatar
Birgeris predicting NO at 50%

@BTE I think there is credible reason Elon Musk is a billionaire, and so I'll assume he knows what he is doing. I don't know what is smartest, but I do think making a truth-aiming ChatGPT-like thing would fit what he wants to achieve, which is to make Twitter the best source for truth.

LeoSpitz avatar
Leo Spitzsold Ṁ199 of YES

BREAKING: Twitter officially hires Igor Babuschkin to work on a ChatGPT competitor

https://twitter.com/TitterDaily/status/1631648529557991424

makoyass avatar
mako yassis predicting NO at 46%

@AnishUpadhayaya6ee why are you buying in response to this, lol, this means it wont be a new AI company, it'll be an existing non-AI company that will start using AI. Maybe it will turn into an AI company, and then we could debate whether this counts as a new musk-started AI company, but it probably wont! It may well go bankrupt before that happens!

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnis predicting NO at 62%

@makoyass Yeah, if anything, that "news" (if it's real; there is no link to a primary source because people on Twitter are brain dead) should make this less likely to resolve YES

makoyass avatar
mako yassis predicting NO at 59%

@LeoSpitz i dunno, is, for instance, FAIR an "organization"?

Whether twitter's chat product team are an "organization" depends how much autonomy they have, how large they are, whether they're reslonsible for any stand-alone products. This question could end up being tough to resolve.

makoyass avatar
mako yassbought Ṁ75 of NO

Betting no because I think it's fairly likely the language model team he's hiring right now will just be a new team at Tesla.

makoyass avatar
mako yassis predicting NO at 68%

Tesla is about to bring a datacenter online, they're already working with large transformers for driving, they're going to have spare compute. If this is a big part of the reason he's doing this, and it probably is, making this a separate company and giving them free compute might actually be slightly illegal.

LeoSpitz avatar
Leo Spitzbought Ṁ100 of YES

IMO @elonmusk most likely to use @Twitter for data + RLHF & @Tesla Dojo supercomputer for training/inference of LLMs at BasedAI. It's all coming together.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1631033881079197696

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnis predicting NO at 66%

@Kormann my boy elon too busy. he busy with his fancy bird texting website

Kormann avatar
Kormannis predicting YES at 55%

@AlQuinn he just has to announce that doesn't take much time:)

AlQuinn avatar
Al Quinnis predicting NO at 64%

@Kormann He needs to be a "shareholder, CEO, founder, board member" of this whatever, and we all know how Musk time works