Xi Jinping lets his hair go naturally grey while in office
Basic
13
589
2035
65%
chance

It would be significantly grey, as would be expected of someone his age. He would have to stop dying it. As of 2023, he is 70 years old.

This is somewhat subjective.

This is about if he goes grey while still having a public role. If he disappears and is no longer in that role, this would NO

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Market clarification: we only have 8 bettors. When I made this I hadn't looked closely enough to see Xi is already quite far beyond convention for people in his role.

I'm not sure the best way to go. One obvious one would be if he goes basically full grey as a typical, say, hk resident of his sex and age would do. That would be a dramatic change but a good thing to bet on. Thoughts?

predicts YES

@Ernie I guess the question is what is a typical HK resident? (Which Xi is not)

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes how about adding a clarification saying that since his hair is currently a bit ambiguous but inarguably somewhat grey, this market will resolve YES unless he dyes it again with x months?

@JoshuaWilkes oh I just mean that style of male ageing. It was one of the bigger shocks when I used to cross back and forth

predicts YES

@Ernie there is a fascinating phenomenon where one could with extreme confidence identify Hongkongers Vs Chinese when one was on a flight from Shanghai to Hong Kong. It's far more pronounced that the difference between Chinese and Taiwanese.

predicts YES

@JoshuaWilkes *the visual difference

ChatGPT thinks so.

@Ernie yeah, this is already, imo, in territory where subjectively you could resolve YES

@JoshuaWilkes

Like, clearly he has not died his hair in anticipation of this trip, even though he has almost certainly died it this year

@JoshuaWilkes yeah it's crazy I didn't realize he was doing this! Is there mandarin language commentary about this in tw or hk media? How long has it been going on?

@JoshuaWilkes yeah the market isn't that old... Hmm what you're saying seems very true