Who will still be working at OpenAI on December 1, 2023? [independent, YES/NO on each]
72
708
7.6K
resolved Dec 1
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman
Resolved
YES
Ilya Sutskever
Resolved
YES
Brad Lightcap
Resolved
YES
Adam D'Angelo
Resolved
YES
Greg Brockman
Resolved
YES
Wojciech Zaremba
Resolved
YES
Mira Murati
Resolved
YES
Bob McGrew
Resolved
YES
Pete Welinder
Resolved
YES
Alec Radford
Resolved
YES
Srinivas Narayanan
Resolved
YES
Jason Kwon
Resolved
YES
Anna Makanju
Resolved
YES
Che Chang
Resolved
YES
Lillian Weng
Resolved
YES
Mark Chen
Resolved
NO
Helen Toner
Resolved
NO
Elon Musk
Resolved
NO
Larry Ellison
Resolved
NO
Paul Graham

Either working for the company or on the board

Suggest more and I'll add them

Also: /Ernie/will-these-people-be-with-openai-on

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ849
2Ṁ530
3Ṁ521
4Ṁ322
5Ṁ255
Sort by:

Resolution seems obvious in all cases. Is there any debate?

Hi all. My view now is that Helen toner is gone and the speculative people (musk, etc) never joined. I have no info others have changed status. If you have a view please comment your reasoning and links. I'll resolve tomorrow based on their status at the time.

If there is doubt in dates I'll treat the claim as meaning whether they were employed there at the moment Dec 1 came, that is, Nov 30 midnight CA time

sold Ṁ33 of Paul Graham NO

What's the resolution criterion? How will you know if they're working at OpenAI on a specific date?

@Jacy any news or linkedIn. Assumption is they stay unless we hear otherwise

bought Ṁ0 of Emmett Shear YES

@Ernie I don't think news or LinkedIn profiles usually have specific dates like this, for employees or board members. But if the criteria is, "Will there be trustworthy online sources saying this person left by December 1 EOD?" that seems reasonable, though you might want a cutoff for when the information is shared (e.g., an employee updates their LinkedIn in January 2024 to say they left OpenAI in November 2023) or maybe the ability to unresolve the market if that happens.

@Jacy I'll judge based known info as of the close date or soon after.

Added a bunch of people from the letter to the board

bought Ṁ10 of Ilya Sutskever NO

added Emmett Shear

@Mira added