Resolution criteria

This independent multiple-choice market will have each option resolve individually based on events occurring prior to January 1, 2029.

• "It IPOs at an IPO Price that gives a $1trillion valuation"

  • Resolves YES if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on a major public exchange before January 1, 2029, and its market capitalization calculated at the final IPO offering price (offering price multiplied by total outstanding shares post-offering) is $1,000,000,000,000 ($1 trillion) or greater. Otherwise, resolves NO.

• "It IPOs at an IPO Price below a $1trillion valuation"

  • Resolves YES if OpenAI completes an IPO before January 1, 2029, and its market capitalization calculated at the final IPO offering price is strictly less than $1 trillion. Otherwise, resolves NO.

• "It IPOs at a price that is a down round from it's last (March 2026) post-money private valuation of $852billion"

  • Resolves YES if OpenAI completes an IPO before January 1, 2029, and its market capitalization calculated at the final IPO offering price is strictly less than $852 billion. Otherwise, resolves NO.

• "It does another private round at a lower valuation that it's March 2026 post-money valuation of $852billion"

  • Resolves YES if OpenAI closes a subsequent private equity funding round (excluding secondary market transactions) prior to January 1, 2029, at an announced post-money valuation strictly lower than $852 billion. The benchmark post-money valuation is set at $852 billion, regardless of whether future adjustments show the March 2026 round was smaller due to contingent Amazon funds not materializing. Otherwise, resolves NO.

• "OpenAI is acquired by another company either fully or as an acquihire"

  • Resolves YES if another corporate entity legally acquires OpenAI before January 1, 2029, via a majority equity buyout (>50%), full asset purchase, or an official acquihire structure. Otherwise, resolves NO.

General Rules:

• Independent Outcomes: Multiple options can resolve YES. For example, if OpenAI IPOs at a $700 billion valuation, both "It IPOs at an IPO Price below a $1trillion valuation" and "It IPOs at a price that is a down round..." will resolve YES.

• Source of Truth: Official SEC filings, corporate announcements from OpenAI, or definitive reporting from major financial news outlets (such as Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, or The Wall Street Journal). If any edge cases arise, they will be resolved using the consensus of these reputable sources.

Background

In March 2026, OpenAI completed a historic private funding round, raising $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation. The round included capital from Amazon ($50 billion total—consisting of $15 billion upfront and $35 billion in contingent tranches), Nvidia ($30 billion), and SoftBank ($30 billion). In June 2026, OpenAI confidentially submitted draft S-1 documents to the SEC. However, reports of mounting infrastructure costs and corporate strategy shifts have led to active debate over whether the company will delay its public debut or face down-round pressure in subsequent capital raises. OpenAI is most exposed to Chinese competition and the general commoditisation of GenAI, has committed huge amounts to compute infrastructure, and shows no current path to profitability. Meanwhile the SpaceX ("AI") IPO is currently trading below its opening day price, despite the lock ups not having undone.

This market tracks how OpenAI's corporate and valuation status will shake out by the end of 2028.

This description was partly generated by AI.