What countries or regions will Joe Biden visit in 2024? 49*Y/N many options much mana
25
268
4.7K
2025
90%
At least six countries
86%
Asia
85%
South America
79%
India
78%
Brazil
75%
UK
75%
Africa
74%
Italy
73%
An island state (see comment)
73%
Peru
72%
At least 20 states
70%
Arizona
65%
Canada
64%
Laos
60%
Mexico
59%
Alabama
55%
Israel
51%
A landlocked country
49%
Japan
46%
Ukraine

There must be some kind of report or proof that he was there but it can be pretty light. Any time spent on land in the country counts.

Flying over, cruising, etc don't.

It must be Biden himself not a replacement or successor.

Note: I wish I'd used Biden or his successor, not exactly him, since that reduces the constant recalculation of health risks. Politically, that's most of what matters too. I used that system in my other market and it worked well.

/Ernie/2024-biden-wins-which-states-multip

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Does the (island) after Taiwan mean that if Biden visits Kinmen it won't count, or is it just saying that someone people don't consider Taiwan to be a country?

@JoshuaWilkes I think I've been using that terminology to count both of those. I don't want to make people who don't believe it's a country uncomfortable, so I talk about just the island. And since for all these claims, there seems to be a pretty big difference between taiwan island "mainland" than those other holdings, I don't mind excluding them. Plus, I also gain the ability to automatically exclude any other new holdings the government there may gain at some point.

Dang you all think he's gonna be seriously active, eh

@Ernie I don't, but I haven't yet built my mana bankroll enough to bring this market closer to reality haha.

An island state (see comment)

Want to clarify that when I wrote this I was taking an expansive view of what might be considered an island state. So, for example, I was intending it to include places like Indonesia and Singapore as well as places like Fiji.

Happy for Ernie to adjudicate though!

@JoshuaWilkes ah okay will update. There are no notifs for new answers so I didn't see this.

@JoshuaWilkes is there a list? Otherwise I can add your comment and we let gpt decide

bought Ṁ13 of An island state (see... YES
bought Ṁ5 of France YES

Will you resolve answers like 'South America' correct, or only countries and US states?

@JoshuaWilkes oh, I see you entered that answer. I think it should be okay!

@JoshuaWilkes yeah! Meta is fine!! But I'll correct any ambiguous ones. Also in this market type even partial overlap is okay!

@Ernie I've been thinking maybe one of these for Xi? It could be pretty relevant.

If you limit it to the first ten international visits only, it makes it a lot more intense I image as you get down to one left. Do you follow it that closely? I've been trying to think of even more big mc markets to play with

bought Ṁ10 of Asia YES

@Ernie we'd have to look at Xi's visits this year, but my instinct is he hasn't made many more than ten anyway.

I think doing it in some form is a very good idea!

@JoshuaWilkes pre- and post- covid are quite different, he was doing 10-20 visits before, but just 5 at the end of 2022 and only 3(!) this year