An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027 | Manifold Markets

Reality Quotient

closes Dec 31, 2026

An AI will bindingly arbitrate a dispute in the United States before 2027

30%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will resolve to YES if a commenter shares convincing evidence before the expiration date, otherwise will resolve to NO.

Sort by:

L

what definitions of arbitration resolve this YES?

Reality Quotientis predicting YES at 45%

@L Legal arbitration. Specifically, it has to be binding. Whether it's judge Judy style or more respectable, doesn't matter.

If I was a TV producer I'd seriously consider casting Max Hedron to start dishing out justice. Let's see if someone actually does it before 2027 :)

Reality Quotientbought Ṁ100 of YES

https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/ai-defend-case-us

That was fast.

Antonbought Ṁ13 of YES

Anyone interested in having a dispute with me, to be judged via chat-GPT, should DM me on twitter or discord. Links in my profile

Reality Quotient

@citrinitas Bonus liquidity of M100 if it's a TV show format, like Judge Judy.

ZZZ ZZZ bought Ṁ100 NO from 34% to 30%

Patrick Bennett sold Ṁ51 NO from 32% to 34%

Aaron Lehmann sold Ṁ20 NO from 31% to 32%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ100 YES at 31% (cancelled)

Reality Quotient sold Ṁ70 YES from 36% to 30%

Evan Þ bought Ṁ20 NO from 37% to 36%

Aaron Lehmann sold Ṁ5 NO from 36% to 37%

Aaron Lehmann sold Ṁ18 NO from 35% to 36%

Charlie bought Ṁ30 NO from 37% to 35%

LynskAyyLmao sold Ṁ10 YES from 38% to 37%

LynskAyyLmao bought Ṁ10 YES from 37% to 38%

Patrick Delaney bought Ṁ10 NO at 37%

Aaron Lehmann sold Ṁ6 NO at 37%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ10 YES from 36% to 37%

Aaron Lehmann sold Ṁ14 NO from 35% to 36%

kenakofer bought Ṁ10 NO from 36% to 35%

Jacob Trefethen bought Ṁ25 NO from 37% to 36%

Andrew Hartman bought Ṁ10 NO from 38% to 37%

Andrew Hartman bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 38%

Andrew Hartman bought Ṁ10 NO at 39%

Dreamingpast sold Ṁ14 NO from 38% to 39%

Rutger bought Ṁ10 NO from 39% to 38%

zQ4Z82W bought Ṁ10 NO from 40% to 39%

Conflux bought Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 40%

rockenots sold Ṁ7 NO from 40% to 41%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 40% (cancelled)

Joshua Clark bought Ṁ50 NO from 42% to 38%

J. F. Jurchen bought Ṁ25 NO from 45% to 42%

L bought Ṁ25 YES from 42% to 45%

wylderai sold Ṁ10 NO from 41% to 42%

wylderai bought Ṁ10 NO from 42% to 41%

Gabriel Wu bought Ṁ30 NO from 45% to 42%

Daniel evans bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 45%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 NO at 46% (cancelled)

John Beshir sold Ṁ100 NO from 37% to 48%

John Beshir bought Ṁ100 NO from 48% to 37%

Dreamingpast bought Ṁ20 YES from 45% to 48%

jonah bought Ṁ20 NO from 48% to 45%

Marlon bought Ṁ10 YES from 46% to 48%

Marlon bought Ṁ10 YES from 44% to 46%

VivaLaPanda bought Ṁ10 NO from 46% to 44%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 YES at 46% (cancelled)

Aaron Lehmann bought Ṁ50 NO from 55% to 45%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ14 YES at 55% (cancelled)

Dreamingpast bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 53%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 55% (cancelled)

Dreamingpast bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 53%

Dreamingpast bought Ṁ10 NO from 57% to 55%

Galen sold Ṁ0 NO at 57%

Reality Quotient bought Ṁ100 YES from 36% to 57%

Related markets

Matthew Barnett

Will an AI hold a high national office in the United States before January 1st, 2040?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Rational Ottawa

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?

Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court make a ruling on any court cases involving the legality of AI art during 2023?

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

AI will peak in 2025

Related markets

Matthew Barnett

Will an AI hold a high national office in the United States before January 1st, 2040?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Rational Ottawa

When will a US court first rule that an AI is legally a person?

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Will a leading AI organization in the United States be the target of an anti-AI attack or protest by the end of 2023?

Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?

Will the U.S. Supreme Court make a ruling on any court cases involving the legality of AI art during 2023?

Will the Brazilian judiciary introduce some kind of AI jurisdiction before 2030?

AI will peak in 2025