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MANIFOLD
The UAW strike will end for all 3 companies at the same time
11
Ṁ405Ṁ2.5k
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO

Will it end for all 3 companies at the same time?

i.e. there will be an announcement from the UAW that the strike is over, and at that point it will include all three companies GM Ford and Stellantis.

There won't be a case where it's over for just one or two of them, but continues with the other.

Market context
Shawn Fain
UAW Strike
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predictedNO

@Ernie Can this resolve or are we still waiting for something here?

@Shump under all interpretations, it's NO, right? So really not much to discuss. i.e. the walkout stopped at different times, and the final agreements were approved and ratified at different times?

predictedNO

@Ernie Yeah this is clearly a NO. You can resolve this.


Please see https://manifold.markets/Ernie/does-a-labor-strike-end-when-the-wo?r=RXJuaWU for detail on how I will determine when a strike ends

Does a labor strike end when the workers return to work, or when a deal is signed and the strike is legally over?
53% chance. YES - strike is over when workers return to work. This means that if they return to work, but then stop again, it's a NEW strike? That is weird. NO - when the deal is signed. This means that if they start working again, and only sign a contract a month later, the strike was on for a month while they were negotiating (weird). Will resolve to market price Also, this will be input to how to resolve the related markets on when the UAW strikes will end. It isn't definitive, but this is a place for us to discuss.

My current view of a strike is when workers aren't working. If they start working again and get off the picket lines, that seems to be when it's over.

@Ernie I have changed my view after some discussion. See above for updates

https://www.investopedia.com/uaw-ford-reach-a-tentative-agreement-8382796 @Ernie

UAW, Ford Reach a Tentative Agreement
United Auto Workers (UAW) announced that it has reached a "tentative agreement" with automaker Ford Motor Co. (F), potentially bringing an end to a six-week strike action if it is ratified.

@Panfilo yes. The workers are still striking until it's accepted, right?

predictedNO

@Ernie They're returning to work before ratification, unlike with WGA. It's clearer in this article, sorry: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-workers-return-work-uaw-turns-gm-stellantis-2023-10-26/

Ford workers to return to work as UAW turns to GM, Stellantis
Ford autoworkers were set to begin heading back to work after the United Auto Workers (UAW) union reached a tentative labor deal with the company late Wednesday.

@Panfilo interesting. Let's gather more information and I'll look for a way to resolve this in the spirit of the market

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