Hey strike-fans!

This is the perfect double crux:

I believe that Shawn Fain INTENTIONALLY is avoiding saying "The strike is over" because in his mind, "strike = labor dispute" and it will only be over when the new agreement is reached.

He's very carefully avoided saying it's over this whole time.

If you are one of the people who are insisting "the strike is over, they aren't striking", what is your explanation for this? Don't you think it's weird that the HEAD of the UAW hasn't declared the strike over?

Nevermind all that: I've bid it up to 90% here. So if you think you are right enough that Shawn Fain would agree with your view that "not working = strike over", just bet here at 10:1 odds and steal my mana:

/Ernie/only-when-the-uaw-labor-agreement-i

If you scrupulously avoid betting or ever commenting again, yet still leave up your comments, well, I think you are in a very good position to understand the position of the LK-99 researchers.

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NOTE: I am discussing resolution criteria in the comments. Please jump in; latest views are at the top.

****************** ABOUT THIS DISCUSSION MARKET************************

It's just a placeholder. Will resolve to market price but that has no other effect. This will be input to how to resolve the related markets on when the UAW strikes will end. It isn't definitive, but this is a place for us to discuss.

YES - strike is over when workers return to work. This means that if they return to work, but then stop again, it's a NEW strike? That is weird.

NO - when the deal is signed. This means that if they start working again, and only sign a contract a month later, the strike was on for a month while they were negotiating (weird).