United Auto Workers Membership decreases to below 350k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025
2
70Ṁ15
2027
37%
chance

according to wikipedia or reliable reports.

Only counting active workers, excluding retired.

  • Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on actual membership data from a form to be filed later in 2026, rather than resolving immediately when the market closes on January 1, 2026. Trading has been reopened to reflect this extended resolution timeline.

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looks like a likely no, but LLMs are saying to wait until a form is filed later in 2026 which will reveal actual membership. I'm reopening trading but the meaning of the question is unchanged.

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