Tesla SAE level 3 car is available in the US before China
Tesla SAE level 3 car is available in the US before China
8
150Ṁ1382030
75%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
It doesn't need to be available everywhere - highway only is enough. It only needs to be available in a single state of the US or a single province of China. In each region it must be approved by regulators.
If it comes out on the same day in both, it's a no.
If it never comes out, this resolves no. Deadline will be extended if necessary.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Tesla based Uber-like service is available in the US for at least some normal Tesla owners before mid 2025
2% chance
Will Tesla release a full level 4 autonomy (no human behind the wheel) car / driver by the end of 2025?
22% chance
Tesla SAE level 3 car is available in the US before the EU
82% chance
Tesla SAE level 3 car is available in the US before Canada
75% chance
Which car manufacturer will sell a SAE level 3 feature next after BMW?
Tesla rolls out SAE3+ driving mode only for a model's Hardware 4+ cars by end of 2025
2% chance
I can buy a level 4 self-driving car in the U.S or Europe
Top car company licenses Tesla autopilot before 2026
18% chance
I can buy a level 5 self-driving car in the U.S or Europe
What self-driving level SAE will Telsa self-driving be at the end of 2025?